Why are predicted grades so hard to give, and can we change it?

Reading Time: 13 minutes It’s been a difficult old year when it comes to predictions (and so many things, but let’s stay focused!). I’m not going to specifically explore my own statistics here – it isn’t fair to any individuals involved – but I’m interested in the reasons that predictions are often so inaccurate when compared with exam results. This year in particular, it’s especially important: today’s announement that Scotland have regraded everyone in line with centre assessment may or may not affect Thursday, but we should consider this for our own good in the future. Predictions are important. With them, we know who …